04 December 2008
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 ACCESS ASIA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

All of Access Asia's statistics, analysis and reports are produced by an experienced in-house team or researchers based in Beijing, Shanghai and the UK.

In gathering data, Access Asia works with a number of local partners in China. These include: 

- The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS - compiler of the Chinese Statistical Yearbook and provincial yearbooks)
- The Centre for Economic Analysis and Forecasting (CEAF - a part of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
- China National Technical Import & Export Corporation (CNTIC)
- The China Economic Quarterly (CEQ) editorial board (a panel of international economists)

In order to gain a clearer picture in specific markets, Access Asia also maintains relationships with a growing number of Chinese trade and industry associations. 

The NBS remains the principal source of data in China. The NBS collects basic market data through a system of report sheets submitted on a regular basis by each provincial level statistical office. This in turn collects data from reporting enterprises and surveys of farmer sales to urban residents, and so on. The same scope of data collection is used for monthly data and annual data - which implies that quick reporting methods dominate even the annual statistics. A critical issue is the quality of the survey and other work used by local statistical offices to collect retail sales data and from smaller establishments and in rural areas. Some improvements are being introduced in pilot programmes to extend sample surveys, but the overall extent of these methods is not known.

Reliance on NBS data presents four main problems:

First, official statistics are not gathered according to international standards, and as such have inherent flaws¡ªto which the Chinese government readily admits. Retail sales, for example, often show growth rates for consumer goods sales which are significantly faster than those indicated by household surveys - thanks to the inclusion of government purchases in the data.

Second, definitions of what is covered by certain data categories often fail to match international definitions.

Third, the criteria by which certain data sets are both defined and gathered can change, creating problems with consistency of data from year to year.

Finally, the NBS provides scant information about methodology and coverage.

In light of these factors, Access Asia has had had to devise tailored ways of deriving market data that makes sense when scrutinised in light of the realities of the Chinese consumer market. This means that what we believe to be the real value or volume of any given market can differ marginally - or markedly - from the official data that most researchers use. However, we believe that our experienced understanding of the Chinese market, combined with our critical approach to Chinese data, has helped us to improve the accuracy of that market data.

Even if NBS data is wide of the mark, the emerging trends have value - though nothing is ever taken for granted. When trying to size any market or sector, we always begin from the top down. In doing so, we use official data not just from the government but also from trade associations within China. We also examine other research reports conducted by both commercial and governmental agencies¡ªboth Chinese and foreign.

Where data gaps do appear, and where conflicting data arises, we rely heavily on the advice of people active in any given market. However, even in this we take a critical view, since data always has a political edge.There is always an intrinsic reason why any information is given, or withheld, and we are always aware that we need to weight the likely accuracy of any given data, based upon knowledge of the standpoint of the person, or organization, that has given the information.

Access Asia then takes this advice we have received from those who know the industry to fill remaining gaps through various trending methods. By reaching a broad consensus from as many as many reliable sources as possible, Access Asia can make strong assumptions about market values and volumes where no data is given, or is erroneous. 

Cross-checking of data is also essential. Once Access Asia's researchers have worked their way down from the top to create subsectoral and provincial data, they then use different methods to make sure that such data makes sense within the reality of the market. Analysis of per-capita expenditure and consumption against other related products and sectors can often highlight where problems within the data.

Sometimes it becomes clear that certain products should not be selling as much as they appear to be. In these cases, Access Asia's researchers reappraise available data - and the sources used to obtain that data. The use of average unit price analysis is also critical. By working out average unit price from this data, our researchers can check this against current average prices in the market. We then use price indices to trend back price data, so that we can compare this with what we know about previous price trends. Cross-checking between provincial data can also highlight data inconsistencies that need attention.

Access Asia also studies average prices when making a critical assessment of the relationship between volume and value figures for any given market. Price indices, and average unit price trends can also help us to derive more accurate volume figures, when we feel that value figures are stronger, or visa versa. When the data we have obtained is trend data, this we will check against broader trend data that we know to be reliable. Monthly provincial retail growth trends can be useful indicators of what is happening in the national market, better than the national growth figures, and again, visa versa.

This leads finally onto data analysis, working from the bottom up. The combination of sectoral and/or provincial data can create a picture of the national market that is very different to that portrayed by the government. Further analysis of the difference between these figures can shed additional light on market statistics. Access Asia has published its China market data using this process for most of the past decade - hence our constant revisions to the market data published in our reports, and the reason why updated reports do not necessarily contain just one new year¡¯s worth of data.

As with other economic analysis provided by research firms, such as the Economist Intelligence Unit, Access Asia's projections change constantly in line with economic developments. And like the EIU and others, Access Asia has no special formula for revising statistical analysis. With economic conditions constantly changing, our researchers make revisions and projections based on their  accumulated knowledge of the market and of the endemic shortcomings within the official data.

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